Sunday, August 19, 2007

India - Food Security & Its Future

India - Food Security & Its Future
By Hari Sud

The first green revolution in India began in 1960s. It resulted in doubling of food grain production from 120 million tons in 1960 to 210 million tons today. It was the combined effort of high yield seeds, extensive use of fertilizers, land reforms and irrigation schemes that resulted in this remarkable achievement. Food self-sufficiency was achieved by 1984. As the year 1995 dawned, India was a net food exporter. This remarkable feat also included increased acreage of cultivable land from 116 million hectare in 1960 to 170 million hectare in 1990. In 1995, 850 million souls had about 190 million tones of food grain to share. Although the forgoing could not be classified as excess, yet it was enough to feed everybody about 2,200 calories a day. A few unlucky one did not get the basic minimum food intake, but it was a far cry from the days of famine and ration of 1950, 1956, 1965-67 and 1975-77.

In the last ten years, India has added 150 million more mouths to feed but has increased food production by only 15 million tons. Hence there is beginning to be an imbalance in supply and demand. Government of India in last 12 months has initiated steps to import as much as 5 million tons of wheat from Australia and elsewhere. It is not for lack of trying that food grain production has not kept up pace, but the present food grain production infrastructure can only produce this much. For a bigger harvest in coming years, different initiatives have to be taken to jump-start the stagnant agriculture sector.

This initiative could be three fold:

a) Use technology together with newer cultivation techniques.

b) Water management with harvesting excess Monsoon rainwater in the North and transporting it to the parched West and South.

c) Ensuring a better return to the farmers.

Each of the above has been under Government of India’s scanner. The latter is concerned about possible social upheaval, should the masses go hungry. The forgoing is not only a serious challenge in India, it has also been recognized as a serious challenge in China. Both India and China while focusing heavily on industrialization have not given due attention to food grains production. Now it is becoming increasingly important for both to shift focus a bit from industrialization to agriculture. China is worse off because rapid industrialization has created a massive acid rain problem. Acid rain is having a detrimental impact on agriculture. Already their wheat production of 125 million tones in 1995 has declined to 100 million tones in 2005. While in India, acid rain is not an issue increasing population will be one.

How Technology Will Help?

1. Technology is going to play a major role to take the grain production from about 210 million tones today to 300 million tons by 2020 (i.e. 6% increase per year). That much food supply is needed to feed the population, which by then will hit 1.4 billion mark. Any political party compromising on that requirement will not survive the ballot box. Hence technology has to become essential part to deliver higher food grain supply needs. Technology will play its role in the following ways:
2. Agricultural input management
3. Better seeds and cultivation techniques

Mechanization of Agricultural Machinery and Handling

A farmer has to become a part agronomist and a part economist. He has to depend upon the information age to know the weather pattern in advance (prior to planting crop), inputs like fertilizers needed for a particular crop, pest control schedule to safeguard crop and maximize advantage from the local irrigation schemes. Once the crop is harvested, the storage and handling losses are to be minimized with careful planning and good local storage. A farmer has to become party to the distribution system to prevent mal-distribution and handling losses. Genetically Modified crops (GM) will play a vital role in future. It should be remembered that Dr. Norman Borlaug’s developed the dwarf variety wheat in Mexico, which was adopted in India and thus began the first green revolution. Without adopting newer varieties of seeds and scientifically planned inputs, it will be harder to boost food grain output. Also Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on labor. In other words it is not fully mechanized. Although, tractor has become common in India to plough the fields, yet further mechanization until harvesting is scanty. There is one very basic requirement, which is mother of all agriculture output, i.e. timely rains and irrigation. Monsoon rains of June-September play a vital role in a particular year’s crop success. Timely rain helps; delayed rain or no rain hurts badly.

Water Supply Situation In India

Geographically, India has two major river basins. In the north, it is the Ganga River Basin, which together with Jamuna and other smaller rivers drain the rainwater and melting snow from Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal. This drainage system is joined by mighty Brahmaputra, which hugs the northern Himalayan contour in Tibet, then bursts into Assam plains and finally joins river Ganga in Bangladesh. This northern basin is surplus in water (34%) and acts as major source of water for irrigation and also inflicts misery during the Monsoon floods. This forgoing is supplemented in the West by five rivers, which originate in the Himalayas and drain south through Punjab and Pakistan into the Arabian Sea. These rivers, two in India and rest in Pakistan have been dammed carefully and canal system provides irrigation to Punjab, Haryana and northern Rajasthan. These rivers and canal system is independent of the Ganga river basin, although they all originate in different parts of Himalayas.

Southern river basin of Godavari, Krishna and Cauvary (and also Mahanadi in Orissa) provides the water and irrigation needs of the peninsular India. This area is south of Vindyachal mountain ranges, which runs roughly east to west, and stands as a hump in the middle of India. It is a dry and parched plateau except during the rainy season it receives sufficient rain to sustain a few rivers. Two of these rivers (Narmada & Tapti), flow east to west horizontally, and discharge into the Arabian Sea. Three more rivers, Chambal, Betwa and Son also originate from Vindya Ranges and flow north and join the Ganga river system. The only reason that these forgoing three rivers flow north are that the high plateau of Vindaya Ranges prevents drainage south. The above-mentioned southern peninsular river system irrigates the rice fields of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karanataka. Irrigation dams have been built on all the rivers and water and power potential had been harnessed. Although these four mighty rivers flow in the peninsular India, yet it is deficient in water (-20%). This deficiency prevents the southern India from utilizing its full agricultural potential. Hence, there is always a hope that some day, surplus water from the northern basin will be transferred south. It is easier said than done. Main problem is the Vindaya plateau. It runs 300 to 600 miles wide with an elevation of 300 to 1500 metes. Taking water over this hump is beyond present day engineering skill except at the expense of huge amount of electric power consumption. It will consume about 40% of all the power India generates today to undertake this step. Three times in last 50 years, this idea has been advanced and three times it has been rejected as unworkable.

The only idea, which seems to make sense, is to transfer the surplus northern water, westwards towards Rajasthan and Gujarat via Haryana. There is no major elevation disadvantage in going west and southwest. Minor mountain ranges can be circumvented. With the arrival of fresh water, parched lands of Rajasthan and Northern Gujarat will become fertile lands. A canal system about 1,600 miles long will eventually bring prosperity to these areas and add additional much needed food grain output to India. The forgoing scheme will also require interlinking Ganga, Jamuna and other Ganagetic plain rivers first. This could be further improved if surplus water of Brahmaputra is also added to this canal system. But Bangladesh stands in the way and is not amenable to any proposal.

Rainfall Pattern In Indian Subcontinent

Rivers in the north are perennial in nature, with a constant flow from the melting snow of the Himalayas. Their flow multiplies four times over during the rainy season from June till September. Annual average rainfall in Eastern India (Assam & Arunachal) is about 200 centimeters, with hilly areas receiving a much higher amount. All the rain, which falls in Arunachal, also flows back into Assam, hence adding to the tremendous surplus in water in River Brahmaputra. This becomes source of misery and destruction year after year. Northern Gangetic plains and the middle Himalayas receive about 100 to 250 centimeters of rain with Himalayan ranges receiving the higher amounts. All this water eventually flows back into the Gangetic basin and causes floods. By the time river Ganga & Brahmaputra join together in Bangladesh, they have too much water and all of it flows into Bay of Bengal but not before inflicting tremendous damage there.

Western Indian plains of Punjab, Haryana and Western UP receive anywhere from 100 to 150 centimeters of rain. This much rain is sufficient to grow good crop as well as keep floods in check. Occasionally the five rivers of Punjab overflow their banks, this happens when greater amount of rain falls in western Himalayan region. These floods have now been contained with floodwater being stored in mighty dams both in India and Pakistan. This later is used to sustain a very progressive agriculture. That does not mean that floods do not happen in Punjab and Pakistan. They do happen but happen less and less.

Western Rajasthan and northern Gujarat receives only 20 to 30 cm of rains. This much rain is insufficient to sustain agriculture, hence making a living there is a bit harder.

The southern peninsular region of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka receives about 50 cm of rainfall during the June-September season but gets additional 35 centimeter of rains during winter October-March time frame, giving it a reasonable total of about 85 centimeters of rain in a year. This much rain although not sufficient but sustains life there. Western Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and part of Orissa receives about 50 to 75 centimeters of rain during June-September time frame, but receive no rain during the winter period, hence these areas are perpetually deficient in water resources. West Coast of India receives a huge rainfall of about 100 to 250 centimeters in a year. This area has never been deficient in water. Sometimes it rains so much that cities on the West coast of India start floating in water like what happened in Mumbai this year.

Overall India receives average of 100 to 150 centimeters of rain in a year. This is a respectable amount. But the vagaries of the weather make it harder to forecast where and when the rain will come first. Farmers depend upon timely rain; otherwise the crops suffer a tremendous set back. The above amount of rainfall results in about 4,000 Billion Cubic Meters of water looking for an exit to the sea. Since 75% of this precipitation occurs in June-September time frame, hence much of this water is looking for an exit in a hurry, in this time frame. At times it overflow the banks and into the cities and villages in the surrounding areas. It has been an accepted theory that about half of this water (2,000 Billion cubic meters) soaks the soil, which has been parched during the summer months; remaining half becomes the river run off. 50% of the this run off is in Ganga-Brhmaputra basin, 20% in Punjab rivers, 10% in central India rivers and remaining 20% in the southern peninsular rivers. In short, there is too much water in the northern basin and much less in the southern peninsular region. As stated above, north has a 34% surplus of water and south has 20% deficiency.

Cost and Benefits of Taking Gangetic Basin Water To Rajasthan

It is a common knowledge that North-South link has to wait until future engineering achieves a breakthrough and makes it possible to pump huge amount of water over 300 meters height inexpensively or canal boring could be done over a distance of hundreds of miles through the central Indian plateau. There is something, which is possible today i.e. taking the surplus Gangetic basin water to Rajasthan. As much as 1,000 billion Cubic Meters of surplus water could be transferred to Rajasthan and Gujarat. It will bring additional 25 to 30 million hectare land under cultivation. This bonanza will produce additional 50 to 60 million tons of food grains annually. In addition, floods and misery known year after year in the Gangetic basin will be a thing of the past. If ever a deal is truck to dig a canal through Bangladesh to take excess water of Brahmaputra, then more land could be brought under cultivation and the benefits will multiply.

The above is feasible now. Costs may be as much as $40 billion over 15 years to build dams; storage facilities and digging up a main canal and multitude of smaller canals to distribute the available water, but the payback will be fast. An estimated $60 billion worth of crop will be available for consumption or export every year. Ancillary industry will most likely add an equivalent amount to the national GDP.

Ensuring Better Returns to the Farmers

India’s farmers are vary from very wealthy to very poor.. Farmers with large holdings are wealthy. They enjoy the benefits of government aid, mechanization and technology. Farmers with smallholding are worst off. The latter is the backbone in food grain production. It is they who need to be looked after most. There are only two ways farmers could be helped:

Subsidize agriculture on the same line as the Western countries do to make farming profitable.

Or

Price structure should be such that it ensures a fair return to the farmers

Help in form of subsidy has created more problems than it ever solves. Dependence on subsidies kills initiative. Hence this alternative has to be discouraged. West (Europe and US) who heavily subsidize their farmers is in fact have built a monster at their doorstep. Subsidies cannot be easily eliminated without a political suicide for the ruling government. Subsidies also make international commerce and trade difficult. Today, WTO talks in Geneva are stuck on the subsidy issue. If the agricultural subsidies in Europe and US are removed then for example, wheat prices in the international market, which currently are in the $140 per ton range, will increase to about $220 a ton. This will make international wheat price at level with Indian wheat prices and remove a major irritant in trade relationship between India and the West. Alternative to direct subsidies is easy long-term credit, better irrigation, higher availability of power, and easy access to other agricultural inputs including mechanized harvesting.

Also stable and guaranteed price is the best mean to ensure prosperity to the farmers. Currently state owned procurement system is highly inefficient. Losses of food grains in storage and transit amount to about 10%. This ultimately reflects in the price the state systems offer to the farmers. If these losses could be cut to bare minimum, the farmer will get 10% or so better price for his produce. Additional money in his pocket will allow him to pay off his credit easily and modernize his farming. Not only that it will give him a more stable life style. Other areas for improvement include further land reforms and easy access to technology to make him a smart farmer. Ultimately, higher output per acre with a combination of the forgoing will translate into more money in farmer's pocket.

Conclusions

In order to boost agricultural output from current 210 million tons to about 300 million tons, technology has to play a greater role. Hopefully immediate needs of the rising population will be met with the combination of technology and efficient management of water resources we already have. Next quantum leap in agriculture cannot be achieved without bringing additional areas under cultivation. There is no more agricultural farmland left to cultivate except in the arid west, southwest and in peninsular India. Both will require transport of surplus water from north to south or southwest. The former is proving to be difficult to achieve. But the latter is achievable. It will take about 15 years to implement this scheme and 5 years to plan. By 2025, India can add additional 50 to 60 million of food grains to a total of about 350 to 360 million tons a year. Hopefully by then the West would have eliminated its agricultural subsidies. At that time India could enter export market in a big way.

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