THE GULF REGION: TUSSLE FOR REGIONAL STRATEGIC PREDOMINANCE

THE GULF REGION: TUSSLE FOR REGIONAL STRATEGIC PREDOMINANCE

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

The Gulf Region comprising of the littoral countries of The Gulf is the most important strategic component of the entire Middle East. The term “The Gulf” is a recent coinage to detract the connotation of its original historic appellation “The Persian Gulf”. Persia or Iran as it is now known straddles the entire eastern littoral of this strategic expanse of water as opposed to the western littoral which comprises a number of monarchial kingdoms owing political and military allegiance to the United States, predominant of which is Saudi Arabia.

The strategic significance of The Gulf region lies in the vast reservoirs of oil and natural gas that are located in both the littorals which cater for the entire global energy needs. Despite the existence of a number of pipelines from the region to the Eastern Mediterranean the bulk of this oil and gas is carried by shipping tankers which traverse. The Gulf and then head for the Arabian Sea after passing the strategic chokepoint of the straits of Hormuz astride which sits Iran as the major predominant country.

The tussle for regional strategic supremacy or predominance in The Gulf region has been a consistent feature in both the 19th and 20th Centuries, despite the change in external and regional actors.

In the United States strategic calculus The Gulf Region has acquired a central focus and the United States has been extremely sensitive to the emergence of any regional power inimical to American strategic interests. It is in this vein that the United States was prompted to launch its new strategy of pre-emptive military interventions against Iraq in Gulf War I in the early 1990s and Gulf War II in the first years of the 21st century.

Strategically ironical is the fact that Iran which was built up by the United States as the regional policemen in the 1970s and as a twin pillar of US security edifice in the region along with Saudi Arabia should now figure as a potent threat in United States perceptions and possibly the next target of American military intervention.

So as things stand today the strategic dynamics in The Gulf Region suggest that a new tussle for regional strategic predominance has set-in in the region between Saudi Arabia and Iran both due to external stimuli and regional dynamics.

To understand the factors and impulses which drive the unfolding power struggle, this paper attempts to examine the following aspects:

The contextual Strategic Setting in The Gulf
Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Comparative Strategic Analysis in Terms of Regional Power
The Gulf Region: The External Intrusive Powers and Their Strategic Interests
The Imponderables of The Gulf Region
The contextual Strategic Setting in The Gulf

The contextual strategic setting in The Gulf which provides a back-drop for the power struggle for regional strategic summary can be outlined as follows: (1) The United States has got bogged down militarily in Iraq following its military intervention (2) The United States military presence in Iraq may have to continue for a number of years and thereby seriously distracting America strategically (3) The American image in the Moslem World and The Gulf Region has taken a beating because of Iraq (4) As a result of United States strategic distractions, Iran has acquired a strikingly higher strategic profile (5) Iran as the largest Shia Moslem nation in the world also commands loyalties of Shia Moslem majority in Iraq and in the Gulf Sheikhdoms (6) Saudi Arabia’s relations with the United States have been uneasy ever since 9/11 and with the United States facilitating the emergence of a Shia Moslem majority government in Iraq (7) President Putin of Russia has made three strategic forays in the region in a span of two years and engaging staunch US military allies in the region (8) China has substantial relationship with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Over-arching and over-riding this contextual strategic setting is the intense brinkmanship between the United States and Iran on the issue of the American insistence that Iran should roll back its nuclear program. While the United States can claim that it has Iran in a strategic cleft-stick hemmed in between the American military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan and that it enjoys the support of all monarchial kingdoms in The Gulf Region, Iran stands regionally all above strategically in the region but with the tacit support of Russia and China.

While the odds may be stacked against Iran but on the other hand the United States too cannot be doubly sure of the support of Gulf Sheikh done with their restive Shia majorities.

Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Comparative Strategic Analysis in Terms of Regional Power

Since the regional tussle for strategic predominance in The Gulf is centered on Iran and Saudi Arabia, it would be in order, to carry out a comparative strategic analysis of both these countries.

Analyzing strictly from the natural attributes of power as postulated by Morgenthan it appears that Iran is comparatively more well-placed in The Gulf Region strategically in terms of geo-strategic location, population, resources and conventional military power. Its long coastline along the eastern littoral of The Gulf and in the South along the Arabian Sea endows it with a significant maritime dimension in these strategic waters.

Saudi Arabia, though large in size and equally if not richer than Iran in terms of oil resources, has a serious limitation in terms of manpower resources to provide her with manpower for sizeable military forces. Its security depends on the strategic munificence of the United States.

Iran enjoys a significant military edge over Saudi Arabia in terms of combat potential. The Iranian Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps along with Baseej militia were battle hardened during the eight year long Iran-Iraq War. Hardening them further is the martyrdom psyche which is spiritually exalted by the Shia faith and the ‘siege mentality’ of Iran under United States and Western sanctions and isolation.

Saudi Arabia’s armed forces are a fraction of the Iranian military might and have had no significant combat experience which limits their fighting capabilities.

Though Saudi Arabia was the first Gulf nation to deploy long range missiles (Chinese CSS.3 IRBMS) it is Iran that has a large missiles arsenal of varying ranges. Iran has battle experience in missile warfare arising from the “War of Cities” with Iraq during the eight year old war.

Iran has considerable military superiority over Saudi Arabia in the naval and air force fields.

In the overall analysis in terms of strategic predominance as a regional power in The Gulf, it is Iran that emerges as the natural choice in terms of attributes of power in its comprehensive sense.

Iraq was a powerful contender for regional power status in The Gulf and as a counter-foil to checkmate Iran. But Iraq today stands destroyed and incapacitated by the United States Military interventions.

The Gulf Region: The External Intrusive Powers and Their Strategic Interests

As on today the three significant external intrusive powers in The Gulf Region are the United States, Russia and China. Of the three the intrusive presence in terms of political influence and military alliance linkages with Gulf nations is that of the United States.

Russia and China had substantial military linkages and political influence with Iraq under President Saddam. Both Russia and China have now substantial linkages with Iran in all fields. Both Russia and China have opposed United States war rhetoric, sanctions and isolation of Iran over the nuclear program confrontation.

Post 9/11, the United States image in the Muslim world and the Arab world in particular has taken a severe beating and this greatly dilutes America’s standing and political influence in The Gulf. It makes America’s hands that much weaker when competing with Russia and China for influence in the region.

President Putin’s strategic forays in this region in the last two years to traditional and strong American allies in the Region is indicative of US Arab allies widening their options in terms of their external engagements.

Coming to the interests of the external intrusive powers in The Gulf Region it should be evident that the United States prime strategic interest in this region centers as control of global oil resources concentrated in this region and in pursuance of this has been sensitive and intolerant of any regimes inimical to it.

Russia is rich in energy resources and its strategic interests in the region are different from those of the United States. In a manner of speaking events and developments in this Region affect Russia’s security especially the hosting of US military bases by the Gulf countries. Russia’s strategic interest in The Gulf is therefore focused on limiting United States influence in the region to offset this threat perception and also to create strategic pressure points against the United States in the region.

China has significant strategic interests in The Gulf Region in terms of garnering oil and gas supplies from this region for her long term energy security needs. What has emerged of late is that Iran has emerged as the most significant long term partner in this region.

Of the external intrusive powers in The Gulf Region, Russia and China have a strategic convergence on Iran for both their individual and joint strategic interests. To that extent both these major powers within certain parameters are likely to encourage and facilitate the emergence of Iran as the Predominant regional power in The Gulf.

The Imponderables of The Gulf Region

In a highly volatile region like The Gulf Region where the strategic interests of major global powers intersect and conflict with each other, and local emotions run high on religious grounds and perceived wrongs against them a fair number of imponderables are likely to hover over the horizon.

Some of the imponderables worth considering are: (1) United States forced exit from Iraq and its implications for Gulf security and on Saudi Arabia in particular (2) Domestic turbulence in the Gulf monarchial kingdoms closely allied to United States (3) Russia’s strategic resurgence acquiring more strident contours (4) United States military intervention in Iran or selective military strikes against Iran and its spillover effects in the Gulf region and against the United States itself (5)Overthrow of present regime in Iran.

The last needs to be commented on as it is relevant to the theme of this discussion. Iran under any new regime whatsoever will not divest itself of its national ambitions to emerge as the pre-eminent regional power in The Gulf Region.

Concluding Observations

Historically, nations of The Gulf Region which were being built up as regional powers by external powers did not survive for long. Their inherent domestic conflicts so caused brought the external props down. Iran under the Shah regime is the major example on this score and so was Iraq under the monarchial rule.

There is a natural order of things in strategic affairs and so also there is a natural balance of power in a region. Ultimately this alone prevails despite any efforts to impede it. Outside The Gulf Region, India is one such example in South Asia.